Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
Probability
30¢
24h volume
$8.93
Source path
from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisor
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Jan 1, 2027
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.