Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

12¢

24h volume

$151.25

Source path

consensus of credible reporting

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Dec 31, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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