Orrery Resolution Risk

Settlement is still pending.

UMA pending

Price can look final before UMA confirmation. Verify the source before treating it as outcome.

Market

Will American Express say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Probability

0¢

24h volume

$1.2K

Source path

the next earnings announcement of American Express currently scheduled to take place on July 24, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: proposed
  • 02Expiry: Jul 24, 2026
  • 03Check whether UMA has proposed, disputed, or finalized the result.
  • 04Confirm the primary source named by the market rules.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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