Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Applied Aerospace & Defense's market cap be between $2.75B and $3.25B at market close on IPO day?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

28¢

24h volume

$717.88

Source path

SEC filing

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 3, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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