Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Baidu have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

4¢

24h volume

$40.00

Source path

to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Sep 30, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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