Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Claude go down 14+ times in August?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

18¢

24h volume

$136.64

Source path

to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 31, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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