Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 1, 2026?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

81¢

24h volume

$849.81

Source path

to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 1, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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