Orrery Resolution Risk

Price is not settlement.

Pinned near NO

A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.

Market

Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Probability

1¢

24h volume

$28.8K

Source path

Associated Press

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Nov 7, 2028
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
  • 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
Create alertOpen marketPolymarket