Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will fewer than 100 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

14¢

24h volume

$423.72

Source path

to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count publishe

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 8, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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