Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will fewer than 220 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 20-July 26?

Resolves in 72h.

Probability

63¢

24h volume

$179.41

Source path

IMF

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 26, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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