Orrery Resolution Risk

Price is not settlement.

Pinned near NO

A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.

Market

Will fewer than 5 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Probability

24h volume

$184.69

Source path

the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on th

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 30, 2027
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
  • 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.