Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.45ºC in August 2026?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
18¢
24h volume
$60.61
Source path
to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Sep 1, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.