Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
5¢
24h volume
$3.5K
Source path
to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Aug 31, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.