Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15?

Resolves in 36h.

Probability

3¢

24h volume

$1.06

Source path

Israeli government

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 16, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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