Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will it rain in San Francisco on July 4?
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
Probability
48¢
24h volume
$20.00
Source path
to the total precipitation in inches in San Francisco, CA on July 4, 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmosphe
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Jul 6, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.