Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?

Resolves in 41h.

Probability

34¢

24h volume

$2.2K

Source path

Department of State

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 18, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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