Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

15¢

24h volume

$25.8K

Source path

Associated Press

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Nov 7, 2028
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
Create alertOpen marketPolymarket