Orrery Resolution Risk

Settlement is still pending.

UMA pending

Price can look final before UMA confirmation. Verify the source before treating it as outcome.

Market

Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be between 38.5-39.0% on January 7?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Probability

100¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

to the datapoint for January 7 as soon as a datapoint for January 8 becomes available

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: proposed
  • 02Expiry: Jan 7, 2024
  • 03Check whether UMA has proposed, disputed, or finalized the result.
  • 04Confirm the primary source named by the market rules.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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