Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will Justin Bieber's monthly listeners figure hit 130m by August 31?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
70¢
24h volume
$126.99
Source path
Spotify at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Aug 31, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.