Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

Resolves in 33h.

Probability

17¢

24h volume

$67.86

Source path

nato

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 16, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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