Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Lake Mead's minimum elevation fall below 1,028 ft?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

45¢

24h volume

$70.00

Source path

data.usbr.gov

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Apr 15, 2027
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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