Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by September 30?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

68¢

24h volume

$580.89

Source path

Official government information

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Dec 31, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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