Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin August 4-10?

Resolves in 45h.

Probability

63¢

24h volume

$558.19

Source path

announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual sells were made

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 11, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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