Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Resolved YES

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Microstrategy's mNAV dip to 1.50 by December 31?

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.

Probability

100¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

the specified StrategyTracker chart, not according to other sources or spot markets

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jan 1, 2026
  • 02UMA status: resolved
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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