Orrery Resolution Risk
Price is not settlement.
A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.
Market
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Probability
1¢
24h volume
$4.2K
Source path
to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Aug 31, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
- 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.