Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will Newmont (NEM) Q2 total attributable gold production be above 1,250 koz?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

71¢

24h volume

$20.00

Source path

the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 23, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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