Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will Oliver Larkin win the FL-25 Democratic primary by less than 5%?

Resolves in 57h.

Probability

5¢

24h volume

$179.94

Source path

Department of State

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 18, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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