Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
52¢
24h volume
$549.19
Source path
OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Jan 1, 2027
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.