Orrery Resolution Risk

Price is not settlement.

Pinned near YES

A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.

Market

Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026?

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Probability

98¢

24h volume

$766.27

Source path

consensus of credible reporting

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Sep 30, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
  • 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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