Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
4¢
24h volume
$3.7K
Source path
to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Oct 10, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.