Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
5¢
24h volume
$9.00
Source path
to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Dec 31, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.