Orrery Resolution Risk

Source quality now matters more than price.

Resolving soon

Near expiry, small wording differences and source timing can dominate price action.

Market

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23?

Resolves in 25h.

Probability

74¢

24h volume

$4.1K

Source path

youtube.com

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 23, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Read the exact resolution rule before interpreting late moves.
  • 04Check event siblings for similar-but-not-identical contract wording.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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