Orrery Resolution Risk

Price is not settlement.

Pinned near NO

A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.

Market

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Probability

2¢

24h volume

$103.02

Source path

to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Bra

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 4, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
  • 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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