Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the November meeting?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

24h volume

$73.76

Source path

to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of B

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Nov 4, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.