Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will the highest-magnitude earthquake in 2026 be 8.2 – 8.3?
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
Probability
10¢
24h volume
$114.00
Source path
the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Jan 4, 2027
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.