Orrery Resolution Risk
Price is not settlement.
A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.
Market
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers?
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Probability
2¢
24h volume
$0.00
Source path
to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the Nation
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Oct 1, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
- 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.