Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the National Party win fewer than 25 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

40¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

consensus of credible reporting

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Nov 7, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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