Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1500 and 1510?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

44¢

24h volume

$106.75

Source path

Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: not stated
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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