Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Probability
86¢
24h volume
$665.83
Source path
the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Dec 31, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.