Orrery Resolution Risk
Resolution path looks readable.
Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.
Market
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by December 31, 2026?
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
Probability
92¢
24h volume
$0.00
Source path
the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Dec 31, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
- 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.