Orrery Resolution Risk

Price is not settlement.

Pinned near YES

A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.

Market

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Probability

99¢

24h volume

$1.8K

Source path

to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 16, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
  • 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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