Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Live

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 8%?

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Probability

45¢

24h volume

$1.0K

Source path

Federal Reserve

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Aug 26, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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