Orrery Resolution Risk

Price is not settlement.

Pinned near YES

A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.

Market

Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 24 be between 85 and 90?

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Probability

99¢

24h volume

$70.60

Source path

to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported fo

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jun 26, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
  • 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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