Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 29 be exactly 0.1?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

43¢

24h volume

$593.60

Source path

to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 31, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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