Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

32¢

24h volume

$22.50

Source path

Department of Defense programs and activities

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 31, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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