Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the US Senate pass at least $20 billion in supplemental War Funding by September 30?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

69¢

24h volume

$5.00

Source path

Department of Defense or otherwise to the United States military by September

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Sep 30, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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