Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution is contested.

UMA disputed

Do not treat the current price as final while the optimistic-oracle path is disputed.

Market

Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'disputed'.

Probability

2¢

24h volume

$0.00

Source path

US government

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01UMA status: disputed
  • 02Expiry: Dec 31, 2026
  • 03Read the market rule and the UMA dispute path before repeating the outcome.
  • 04Compare sibling markets for wording differences.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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