Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will the winner of the 2026 Tour De France be from Italy?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

41¢

24h volume

$60.00

Source path

to the listed nationality of the 2026 Tour de France champion

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 26, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
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