Orrery Resolution Risk

Resolution path looks readable.

Illiquid

Still verify the source before repeating a market price as an outcome.

Market

Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

Probability

91¢

24h volume

$21.28

Source path

to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6

Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.

What to verify

  • 01Expiry: Jul 5, 2026
  • 02UMA status: not reported
  • 03Confirm the source still matches the exact market wording.
  • 04Treat this as research context, not trade advice.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.
Create alertOpen marketPolymarket