Orrery Resolution Risk
Price is not settlement.
A market pinned near 0¢ or 100¢ can still be officially unresolved.
Market
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?
YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Probability
1¢
24h volume
$64.91
Source path
to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6
Price can be useful context, but settlement depends on the contract wording and source path.
What to verify
- 01Expiry: Jun 8, 2026
- 02UMA status: not reported
- 03Confirm the source has published the result, not just that the price moved.
- 04Check whether the market wording excludes overtime, penalties, dates, or edge cases.
not trade advicePrice is not settlement.